I. Core Global Benchmark Prices (LME closing on Oct 16)
表格
| Item |
Price (USD/MT) |
Remarks |
| LME Primary Aluminum 3-month futures |
3285 |
Global benchmark for aluminum pricing. Current spot carries a $5 premium to the 3-month contract, showing mild backwardation (tight spot supply). |
| LME Die-cast Aluminum Alloy Ingot (ADC12 equivalent) |
3190-3200 |
Cash bid/ask price, flat against the 3-month contract, range-bound movement. |
| Northwest Europe spot premium (duty-free arrival) |
447.7 |
Oct contract price, up 12% vs August; local spot supply shortage. |
| US Midwest spot premium |
385 |
Stable compared with September. |
| Southeast Asia main port spot premium |
120-150 |
Singapore / Port Klang; 70% lower than Europe & America, steady demand. |
II. China FOB Spot Quotations (Shanghai Port, MOQ ≥5MT)
Benchmark for external quotation:
- ADC12 Die-cast Aluminum Alloy Ingot: 3150-3250 USD/MT. High-turnover product with thin profit margin.
- 6063-T6 Aluminum Bar / Profile: 3250-3400 USD/MT. General window & radiator grade, highest inquiry volume.
- 6061-T6 Aluminum Bar / Plate: 3350-3600 USD/MT. General structural alloy. Add $50-80/MT for cut-to-size & special specifications.
- 5083-H116 Marine Aluminum Plate: 3800-4100 USD/MT. High-alloy grade; export profit 30% higher than 6xxx series.
- 7075-T6 Aerospace Aluminum Plate / Bar: 5200-5800 USD/MT. High-strength alloy with top premium; mainly for European & American buyers.
III. Core Market Drivers
✅ Price Support (Limited Downside)
- Global fundamental supply gap: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East shut down 2.5 million tons of primary aluminum capacity (recovery cycle: 3–12 months), together with the shutdown of Mozal smelter in Africa. The global primary aluminum deficit totalled 363,700 tons in Q1 2026.
- Historically low inventory: LME aluminum inventory dropped to 243,600 tons, a 20-year low. Overseas warehouses have barely available spot cargo, keeping European spot premiums elevated.
❌ Price Ceiling (Limited Upside)
- Forward supply expectation weighs on market: The market is pricing in the resumption of Middle East capacity plus 1.8 million tons of new global primary aluminum capacity in 2027. Fund long positions keep reducing.
- Narrowing export window: China export arbitrage profit shrank from a historic high of $300/MT in August to current $80–120/MT. Export orders of aluminum products in Q4 fell 15% month-on-month.
- Off-season downstream demand: European and American automotive & home appliance sectors enter production off-season in Q4; restocking pace slows with no large new demand stimulus.
Short-term Outlook
Sideways range of 3200–3350 USD/MT before November. Further rally to $3400/MT may occur if transportation disruption in the Strait of Hormuz escalates before Chinese New Year; price will not break $3500/MT for the whole year.
